Former senator John Edwards announced from New Orleans Wednesday, January 30, that he was “suspending” his candidacy for the nomination of the Democratic Party for president. From the same place that he had announced his candidacy, in New Orleans’ Katrina-devastated 9th Ward, Edwards disappointedly told a small crowd that it was time to step aside and let history be made by the Democratic Party. He did not endorse either Senator Barack Obama or Senator Hillary Clinton, but he admitted that he had spoke with both candidates earlier, apprising them of his intentions, and getting from them their word that they would do as much as possible for the poor, the key issue in Edwards’ campaign.
Several hours later, former mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani also bowed out of the race at a press conference at the Ronald Reagan Library, site of the Republican debate held later in the day between the remaining four Republican candidates. In a much-publicized press conference, Giuliani, with John McCain at his side, announced his withdrawal and his endorsement of the Arizona senator for the Republican Party’s choice for president.
The withdrawal of Rudy Giuliani was expected. Having bet his entire candidacy on a first-place finish in the Florida Primary, his disappointing third-place finish was a sure indicator for most political analysts that he would step aside.
Edwards’ removal of himself, however, came as a bit of a shock to everyone. Stating as late as Tuesday that he was in the race until the end, his announcement early Wednesday was so unexpected, it has led many to believe that the decision was not solely based on the former senator’s distant third-place finishes in South Carolina or Florida. Many speculate that it may have had a lot to do with his wife, Elizabeth, who was diagnosed with cancer (the day John Kerry conceded defeat to George W. Bush) in 2004.
This leaves the Republicans with four men standing: Arizona senator John McCain, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, and Texas representative Ron Paul. The Democrats are left with two candidates: New York senator Hillary Clinton and Illinois senator Barack Obama. With Super Tuesday looming, the race just got a little tighter on both sides of the political fence.
Does the departure of Edwards and Giuliani benefit or hurt any of the other candidates? Doubtful. Edwards’ supporters were primarily blue collar white males. Clinton may have a slight edge over Obama, unless Edwards actually endorses Obama over Clinton. As for Giuliani, his open endorsement of McCain certainly did not hurt the Arizona senator. Representing the left side of the GOP as both these men do, Giuliani’s supporters would more than likely have drifted toward McCain without the endorsement, considering the similarity in both men’s ideologies.
One thing is certain, the absence of these two men loosed quite a few voters back into the pool of voters for Super Tuesday.
Sources:
Nedra Pickler and Becky Bohrer, "Edwards Drops Presidential Bid," KansasCity.com
Jonathan D. Salant, "Giuliani Abandons Presidential Race, Endorses McCain," Bloomberg.com
Polls, depending upon which ones you look at, are showing Senator Barack Obama ahead of Senator Hillary Clinton by as many as 9 or 10 to 16 percentage points in South Carolina just hours before the polls open in that state's Democratic Primary. But the polls have been wrong before. They were wrong in Iowa. They were really wrong in New Hampshire.
The polls put Barack Obama well ahead. Why, when just a few short months ago, Hillary Clinton led the polls? Simply because Obama has gained the confidence of the African-American electorate, something he did not have a few months ago. And some feel confident he could become the next president, also something they did not believe a few months ago. But that is what a victory in Iowa and an extremely strong showing in New Hampshire will get you - confidence.
John Edwards is a distant third but has picked up ground in the last week, rising as much as 9 percent, which still puts him behind Clinton by at least 11 %. According to a Mason-Dixon Poll, Obama leads with 38 %, Clinton with 30 %, and Edwards with 19 %. Reuters/C-Span/Zogby has it 38, 25, 21 - in the same order. The latter gives Edwards more leverage and puts him and Clinton in a virtual tie. If Edwards pulls off a second-place finish, there could still be a chance for him to capture the nomination. But he has to do well in South Carolina, or so say the analysts.
I disagree. John Edwards could lose South Carolina and on Super Tuesday, February 5, do well enough in those elections to put himself in the lead (or a really close second) in this race. As long as he remains in the race, Edwards has a shot. Admittedly, it is a long shot, but with Clinton and Obama sniping at each other, Edwards has become the voice of reason in the Democratic Party. As he told David Letterman the other night, he now represents the "grown up" part of the Democratic Party. And he could be right. Saturday's primary will be a good indicator.
Democrats, in order to win the general election, have to start thinking with their heads instead of with their hearts. A woman or an African-American in the White House sounds great and would be a great thing to see, but it probably will not happen if John McCain is the Republicans choice. John Edwards is probably the only Democrat who can beat McCain in the general election (that is assuming that McCain wins the Republican nomination and, given the mood of the country, if the Republicans want to win in the fall, he will be their candidate). Clinton cannot beat McCain because she galvanizes Republicans. Too many of them simply hate her (and her husband). In fact, the only two choices the Democrats have now are Barack Obama and John Edwards. Barack Obama will also galvanize the Republicans, but for different reasons. One of them is race (and I'm not talking about voting against him because he's black, although that, unfortunately, will be a factor for some). Take a look at the CNN exit polls for South Carolina. There isn't even a 1 % showing for African-Americans or Latinos voting in the Republican Primary. There are considerably more white eleigible voters registered to vote all across the United States. If McCain gets the Republican nomination, not only will he get almost all of the registered Republicans, he'll also get most of the moderate and conservative Democrats as well if Clinton or Obama is nominated. Independents will split.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama cannot beat those numbers.
But Edwards can.
Depending upon whom you listen to or read, president Bush is in the Middle East for the first time (in his presidency) working on a peaceful settlement to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Well, sort of. Many believe he is attempting to find his legacy there. Some think he already has...
Then there are those who believe he is there to drum up support for attacking Iran. This faction believes that he's attempting to get the good will of all these Middle Eastern nations he is visiting so attacking Iran won't hurt the U.S. economically. And by "economically," of course, the meaning is "a diminishment of oil supply."
The third faction believes Bush is simply there to sell arms to Middle Eastern countries.
Help stabilize the region, as it were. (Stabilizing the most volatile region on the planet by an infusion of war materiel just sounds counter-intuitive, does it not?) And that may be the plan. He's announced a $30 billion package to Israel. He also announced a $20 billion package to Saudi Arabia. Other arms packages are sure to come as he makes his way through his 8-day tour.
This writer proposes a fourth faction. How about all three of the other schools of thought combined? Why not? He's already there. Might as well kill three birds with one trip in installments. Pitch the Palestinian-Israeli peace deal. Push the as-you-guys-all-know-Iran-is-part-of-the-"Axis-of-Ev il"-so-attacking-them-is-a-good-thing argument. Make a few billion dollars in arms deals. Who would have thought that Dubya the Dimwit was a multi-tasker?
Let's just hope the moron doesn't get us involved in another war while he's touring. While in Israel, Bush visited the Palestinians. He joked that he didn't have a problem getting his 45-car entourage through the Israeli checkpoints (those same hated checkpoints maintain a chokehold on Palestinian movement within the region). Thank heavens he is taking his one-man act back to Crawford, Texas, in a year.
Of course, the faction this writer sides with also believes that that isn't soon enough...